2009年7月23日

Well, like it or hate it, Autodesk owns 98% of the 3d market.

Houdini can try but they don't have a full spectum of tools easily used my all kinds of artists. Every company that tried all houdini failed. User base is the most important thing anymore. Hireing for a new movie? What can you hire? A lot of softimage guys? Not in LA or San Fran. Houdini guys? Sure a few.

There is no missing feature in Maya right now that will make companies leave if it's not implemented. There are wish lists, but all "needs" are programed into at each company. Hydraulx is staying on Maya2008 until for forseable future. They are pissed off at autodesk and wrote their own shaders, pipeline, fluid cache, whatever. They don't need anything from autodesk to keep making movies. CafeFX tried to move to Softimage, built a nice pipeline. Failed b/c they could find enough artists who knew it. Houdini is a good option, and it "can" do it, but there's no way it can compete speed wise across the whole pipeline with Maya, hence no company is really trying to do that.

I'm at Asylum, a company that uses a lot of houdini. But ask any sup and the reason is more b/c they have great artist who choose to use Houdini. It's competative Maya to Houdini. Some times I think one gets the upper hand, then the other, but only in FX and maybe lighting/rendering.

I used to get mad that Maya dynamics weren't updated, but ultimately I knew why. They are working on what big companies ask them to work on and pay a lot for it to be added. Each part in turn will get new cool features.

In my wildest dreams Autodesk will make 3dmax, softimage, and Maya into one package. Where you set a preference and BOOM! the interface looks like Maya or 3dMax. Same engine and whatever interface you are used to you can work in. Maya is being rewritten in QT, which means you can re-do the interface, and making a 3dMax interface and workflow or softimage is feasble. Sure not 100% the same but enough to make it easy to transition to. Will that happen? Maybe but if they do, then they have all their artist useing one package. So instead of Maya/Max/XSI/Houdini it will be ALL3d/Houdini market share will be retarded. Everyone everywhere will be useing ALL3d. Houdini will still be there but no way it will ever have a chance of taking a huge stake in the 3d world. Not sure SideFX ever had dreams of taking over the 3d world. It will always be a small houdini market. It's great but for a few areas more than others.

An alternate future is a ZBrush type app will come out and take the 3d world by storm and continue to keep things competative. Who knows.
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-- Dave

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